The European Securities and Markets Authority confirmed on Friday that specific prediction market contracts fall under existing EU financial regulations. The regulator determined that event contracts featuring binary outcomes and fixed payouts qualify as restricted financial instruments.
Regulatory Classification and Retail Restrictions
ESMA clarified that platforms cannot bypass oversight by operating on cryptocurrencies or targeting professional investors. Contracts linked to equities, indices, interest rates, currencies, or commodities are classified as derivatives under Annex I of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II. This classification subjects binary payoff derivatives to product intervention measures originally introduced in 2018. The authority explicitly prohibited the marketing, distribution, or sale of these event contracts to retail clients.Contracts that do not meet the financial instrument definition may fall under the upcoming EU Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation or national gambling frameworks. Gibraltar has established licensing pathways for prediction market operators functioning as intermediary betting platforms.
In June, a consortium of nine European gambling regulators initiated a review of unlicensed prediction platforms, citing consumer protection and market integrity requirements. Several national authorities have already restricted access to operators Kalshi and Polymarket.