The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has issued a formal warning regarding prediction market products within the European Union. The regulator stated that binary event contracts may be subject to existing restrictions on financial derivatives sales to retail customers.
Regulatory Scope and Classification
ESMA identified that platforms offering yes-or-no contracts with fixed payouts resemble binary options. Under MiFID II, these instruments are classified as derivatives linked to assets like equities, indices, or currencies. Consequently, they fall under the same prohibitions applied to binary options since 2018. The restrictions originated from concerns over aggressive marketing and high client losses.
The authority clarified that using cryptocurrencies or limiting access to professional investors does not exempt platforms from oversight. While some contracts may fall under gambling laws or the upcoming MiCA framework, any instrument tied to a MiFID II asset must be treated as a financial derivative. "While this public statement specifically mentions financial instruments marketed as event contracts, the assessment of whether the national product intervention measures apply should be conducted for all financial instruments with similar characteristics to event contracts," the regulator noted.
This statement follows recent actions by national bodies. Several European gambling regulators have already restricted access to platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Additionally, German authorities launched an investigation into ADI Predictstreet, while a group of nine regulators issued a joint warning against prediction platforms last month.